World Bank report: Energy prices will fall 11 percent in 2023

The Bank published the October 2022 issue of its Commodity Markets Outlook Report with the title “Pandemic, War, Recession: Driving Forces of Aluminum and Copper Prices”. It was stated that the sharp slowdown in global growth and concerns about the approaching global recession put pressure on commodity prices. As the slowdown in global growth intensifies, the report states that commodity prices are expected to loosen in the next 2 years, but that prices will remain well above the averages of the last 5 years. In the report, it was stated that while the concerns about the accessibility of energy intensified in Europe in the coming winter months, the energy markets were faced with a series of supply concerns.

Energy prices are expected to rise by nearly 60 percent this year.

Emphasizing that rising commodity prices may prolong inflationary pressures, the report noted that the energy commodity price index, which consists of oil, natural gas and coal, is expected to increase by 59.1 percent this year compared to last year. In the report, it was stated that the energy price index is expected to decrease by 11.2 percent in 2023, but despite the said decrease, it is expected that the prices will continue to be 75 percent above the average of the last 5 years. In the report, it was stated that the index consisting of non-energy commodity prices such as agricultural products, metals and minerals is expected to increase by 10.5 percent this year, and it was stated that the said index is expected to decrease by 8.1% next year. In the report, it was stated that the barrel price of Brent crude oil is expected to reach an average of $100 this year, with an increase of 42 percent compared to last year, and to decline to an average of $92 in 2023 with a decrease of 8 percent. In the report, it was noted that the barrel price of Brent crude oil is expected to be around $80 per barrel in 2024.

Expected decline in gold prices

The price index of precious metals is expected to decrease by 4 percent this year and by 3.6 percent next year, and it is estimated that the ounce price of gold will decrease by 1.4 percent this year and 4.2 percent in 2023 compared to last year. In the report, it was pointed out that the price index of agricultural products is expected to increase by 13.4 percent this year, while a decrease of 4.5 percent is expected next year. In the report, it was stated that metal prices are expected to decrease by 15 percent next year, while increasing by 2.9 percent this year, and it was stated that the expectation of a decrease in metal prices was largely due to weak global growth and economic slowdown concerns in China.