Ufuk KORCAN / THE ROUTE OF MONEY I have been a business journalist for more than 20 years. Most of this time was related to stock market-finance. In the past, when there were sharp price movements in stocks in both directions, the authority would ask the company for explanation about this movement. Sometimes companies even made statements themselves. Most of the statements from the companies would be ‘there is no special situation that has not been disclosed to the public’. These days, almost over 20 shares are at the ceiling every day, and we are witnessing the rises that last for days. Even though there are ‘informative’ statements about the movements in the shares of the companies, the conditions we are in are preparing the ground for such movements.
INTEREST IS CONTINUOUSLY INCREASING
Due to the falling interest rates, the returns in fixed-income instruments, which are much lower than inflation, have increased the interest in the stock market. With the number of investors reaching 2.7 million, there can be sharp price movements on the basis of shares in Borsa Istanbul. In a high inflation environment, the increase in company income and profits causes upward revisions in valuations, on the other hand, it becomes a material for speculation. The balance sheet season for the third quarter of the year started last week. The common feature of the first numbers is that company profits exceeded expectations.
DEADLINE 21 NOVEMBER
The deadline for disclosure in the balance sheets is 31 October for unconsolidated companies and 9 November for consolidated companies. The deadline for solo bank balance sheets is 9 November. Consolidated financials of banks will be announced until November 21st. So, what are the expectations for the balance sheets that affect the pricing? Halk Invest has prepared a comprehensive research on the third quarter balance sheets. Among the companies within the scope of the research, those expected to increase their net profit the most in the third quarter are; It is listed as Çimsa, Akçansa, Tüpraş, Doğuş Otomotiv and Şok Marketler.
KR EXPLOSION IN BANKS
On the operational side, the companies that are expected to increase their EBITDA the most on an annual basis are; Biotrend, Tüpraş, Tat Gıda, Akçansa, Doğuş Otomotiv. It is estimated that the strongest net profit increase will be seen in Vakıfbank with 537 percent on an annual basis and Garanti Bank with 36 percent on a quarterly basis. is being done.
Critical level in Borsa Istanbul: 3,792
The aggressive upward trend continues in the BIST 100 Index. This trend started in the week of July 18, 2022 and the support point of the trend for this week is 3,792 points. In other words, unless it falls below this trend line, it can be said that the short-term main trend in the index is up for now. In possible pullbacks, the 3 thousand 50 – 3 thousand 200 point band is the first support zone. In the event that this region is reached, the 2 thousand 918 point level is an important support point. It can be expected that the upward trend will continue, provided that the weekly indicators do not produce negative signals at least and remain above the above-mentioned trend in the index.
The food retail industry will come to the fore
Halk Invest expects food retail companies to record strong revenue growth in the third quarter, supported by high inflation. While BİM is expected to record strong turnover growth with an annual increase of 124 percent, it is expected that the net profit will reach 1 billion 912 million TL with an increase of 116 percent on an annual basis. Again, Migros is expected to grow 112 percent annually and 98 percent EBITDA. The turnover increase expectation for Şok Markets is 129.7 percent, and the EBITDA increase expectation is 107 percent. While high turnover figures are expected due to inflation-related price adjustments of companies in the cement sector, it is stated that the increase in energy costs will put pressure on profit margins.
The tight trend continues in the dollar
The tight course in the 18.58-18.61 range from USD/TL continues. There is no significant change in the weekly chart in the pair compared to the previous week. The movement on the upward trend, which started at 13.81 TL in the week of January 3, 2022, still continues. This is technically unfavorable. In addition, staying above the level of 18.25 TL, which works as a horizontal support point, does not produce good signals from a technical point of view. This image signals that the possible bullish risk still continues in technical terms. In other words, in order to talk about a relief in the parity, it is necessary to see closings below these points. For the moment, apart from the horizontal support of 18.25 TL, the support point of the trend coincides with the level of 17.47 TL. If it is reached below these points, there may be a possibility of a pullback until the trend support at the level of 15.92 TL. However, it is worth mentioning again; In a negative scenario, the risk of upward movements may increase unless the level of 18.25 TL is technically lowered. 
A professional writer by day, a tech-nerd by night, with a love for all things money.