Ufuk KORCAN / THE ROUTE OF MONEY
Incredible movements are happening in the markets. Especially in the last month, banking stocks marked the stock market. Bank shares, which experienced increases of up to 200 percent in a short time, turned down and base prices were seen one after the other. In addition, these movements took place on huge boards called the ‘heavy brothers’ of the stock market. Repurchase of their own shares by banks and transaction collateral calculations for the underlying assets of Akbank, Garanti BBVA, Halkbank, İş Gyo, İş Bankası, Şekerbank, TSKB, Vakıfbank and Yapı Kredi Bank in the Futures and Options Market (VIOP) of Takasbank. updating the risk parameters used seems to have stopped the sharp decline in banking shares.
Dollar hits record
Another development that marked the last week was the interest rate decisions of the central banks. The US central bank (Fed) increased by 75 basis points, as expected. However, when the statements made by the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell supported the views that “the Fed will maintain its hawkish attitude”, the stock markets, which rose with the decision, went down. Apart from the Fed, England, Switzerland, Norway, Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan were listed as the central banks that increased interest rates. The central bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), on the other hand, continued to move against the global trend and cut by 100 basis points. Domestically, the dollar reached its new historical peak by reaching the limit of 18.40 TL.
Over 1000% return
It is very difficult for individual investors to predict where they will direct their savings in markets where a new critical development takes place every week. As I have mentioned in previous articles, mutual funds managed by professionals stand out as a good alternative in such periods. Hedge funds, which have the highest mobility among mutual funds, stand out in the volatile market. Hedge funds, which can be thought of as the Turkish equivalent of the term ‘hedge fund’ used abroad, appeal to qualified investors with a portfolio of more than 1 million TL. These funds can provide high returns to their investors by making rapid transitions between investment instruments after sudden changes in the markets. Of course, the risk of these funds is higher than other funds. Considering the returns of hedge funds since the beginning of the year, it is seen that returns exceeding 1000 percent have been achieved. Most of the hedge funds have managed to generate returns above inflation since the beginning of the year.
September’s volatility helped hedge funds
Looking at the September performances of hedge funds, it is easier to understand how high returns they offer in a fluctuating trend. BIST 100 Index started September at 3,171 points and rose to 3,650 points within the month. In other words, it increased by 15% in this period. After the peak, the index decreased by 12.35 percent to 3.199. It is not difficult to predict that the number of individual investors making money from this great movement in the stock market will not be very large. However, it is noteworthy that hedge funds, which can take positions in both rising and falling, provided significant returns in September. For example, Inveo Statistical Arbitrage Hedge Private Fund yielded 240 percent returns in 3 weeks. Again, Ziraat Portfolio’s two hedge funds earned 34 percent. Considering that those who invested their money in deposits achieved this return in two years, it becomes clearer how successful this performance was.
Stock market should hold above 3,311 points
It is negative to come below the level of 3 thousand 311 points on a weekly basis in the BIST 100 Index. Because this point was the support point of the uptrend that started on the week of July 18, 2022 last week. For this reason, the index needs to rise above this trend line again. For such a move, it is necessary to stay above 3 thousand 416 points. In the event that this scenario, which we will call positive, occurs, the continuation of upward movements can be expected. Otherwise, a technical downside risk may arise in the index. In this case, the risk of withdrawal up to the level of 2 thousand 872 points should be emphasized.
Critical level in dollar 18.36 TL
The fact that the USD/TL parity exceeds the 18.36 TL level on the weekly chart is technically negative. It is necessary to go below this point again as soon as possible. Otherwise, there is a risk that the upward momentum will continue. In case of falling below the critical level of 18.36 TL, a pullback potential may occur up to 17.07 TL, with 17.77 TL being the intermediate support point. Below this point, there is trend support at the level of 16.92 TL. However, it can be said that the main support point is the trend line starting the week of September 6, 2021. The support point of this trend coincides with the levels of 15.51 TL.
